Elon Musk’s prolific tweeting has become a financial spectacle on Polymarket, a popular prediction market platform. Since June, enthusiasts have been betting on the Tesla CEO’s Twitter activity, creating a vibrant market that consistently sees trading volumes exceeding $1 million weekly. With two distinct markets focused on Musk’s tweets—one for the total number of tweets and another for tweets within specific ranges—participants have turned guessing Musk’s tweeting habits into a potentially lucrative venture.
The sometimes controversial Polymarket is one of the internet’s ‘prediction markets.’ That’s a fancy — and fairly sophisticated — way to put your money where your mouth is when you feel the urge to state an opinion on the internet. Even if your opinion is ‘I’ll bet Musk tweets more than 400 times this week.’ Indeed, the Musk tweeting ‘market’ on the site is so active that it’s been given a top-level site link and repeats weekly. This week’s market, which ends on January 17, has already done over $1.9 million in trading volume and it routinely hits more than $1 million.Site records show it’s been a weekly market since at least June. And there’s a second one where users can bet on the number of tweets ranging between 300 and 550+ in 25-tweet increments.
For instance, on Tuesday, user ‘Rogu’ analyzed: ‘Current tweets per day is at 50, on pace to hit 350. To get to 400+ he’d need to average more than 65 per day for the remaining time. While that is a fair bit more, it’s not that much. With the upcoming Starship test flight he might be tweeting a bit more than these past few days.
“To get to 400+ he’d need to average more than 65 per day for the remaining time. While that is a fair bit more, it’s not that much. With the upcoming Starship test flight he might be tweeting a bit more than these past few days.”
— User “Rogu”
Event-Driven Predictions
The potential for increased tweeting activity due to upcoming events like the Starship test flight could influence this week’s results, with some users expressing confidence in a higher count.
“I’ll bet Musk tweets more than 400 times this week.”
— No attribution
Polymarket is known for allowing users to bet or buy shares on a wide array of topics, with the Elon Musk tweeting market standing out as a favorite. This market provides an opportunity for users to estimate correctly and potentially earn significant profits. Kalshi, Polymarket’s main competitor, also features an Elon Musk link with various opinion-based bets, underscoring the widespread interest in Musk’s social media presence.
Author’s Opinion
The betting on Elon Musk’s tweets is an intriguing reflection of both his massive influence and the growing popularity of prediction markets. Polymarket has turned his often controversial social media activity into a financial spectacle, allowing users to bet on something as unpredictable as a tweet count. While the outcomes of these markets are driven by event-related surges, such as Musk’s Starship test flight, it’s clear that the public’s fascination with his actions extends far beyond just liking or retweeting. This spectacle not only reflects the unpredictable nature of Musk’s online presence but also represents a new avenue for financial speculation based on social media behavior.
Featured image credit: Steve Jurvetson via Flickr
Follow us for more breaking news on DMR