SpaceX is preparing for a Friday IPO that could raise $75 billion at a valuation near $1.75 trillion, drawing strong demand from institutional investors. The offering has also placed attention on the company’s plan to build orbital AI data centers, a major part of its growth story in the public markets.
In its SEC filing, SpaceX said it expects to expand terrestrial data centers, launch orbital data centers, and spend several years before those deployments produce sustained positive adjusted EBITDA for its AI segment.
Valuation Depends On AI Execution
Analysts have valued SpaceX below the level sought in the IPO. Morningstar estimated the company’s fair value at about $825 billion, while New York University finance professor Aswath Damodaran put its enterprise value at about $1.22 trillion after reviewing the prospectus.
Morningstar’s analysis described the gap between its fair value estimate and SpaceX’s offering price as a bet on the company’s ability to deliver orbital data centers at scale. Both analyses treated SpaceX’s launch and Starlink businesses as stronger than its AI plans.
SpaceX’s filing frames enterprise AI as its largest market opportunity. The company also points to AI infrastructure and space services as major long-term markets.
Orbital Data Centers Depend On Starship
Elon Musk said in a SpaceX video that the company wants to reach an annualized rate of roughly one gigawatt per year in space AI compute by the end of next year. He said this was not a promise, but something the company would try to do.
That plan depends on Starship, which SpaceX says is designed as a fully reusable transportation system. The company has said Starship is central to lowering the cost of sending large payloads to orbit.
Based on Musk’s stated target of up to 150 kilowatts per AI satellite, one gigawatt of annual compute production would require about 6,666 satellites a year. That would be far above SpaceX’s reported current Starlink satellite production rate.
Investors Weigh Launch Strength Against AI Risk
SpaceX’s launch business and Starlink network remain central to the company’s appeal. Starlink provides satellite internet, while SpaceX operates one of the world’s most active launch systems.
The AI plan adds more uncertainty. SpaceX would need reusable rockets, high-rate AI satellite production, expanded solar panel manufacturing, and a U.S. chip foundry called Terafab to support the longer-term vision.
According to TechCrunch, the IPO gives investors exposure to a launch business, a global communications network, and a large wager on space-based AI infrastructure.
Featured image credits: Wikimedia Commons
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