CryptoQuant’s founder and CEO, Ki Young Ju, has revised his earlier price predictions for Bitcoin, now projecting a price ceiling of $135,000, with a 2024 target of $112,000. This updated forecast comes after a quantitative analysis of Bitcoin’s price action, which reflects the influence of increasing capital flows into the market, particularly from exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and other financial products.
Ju’s projections emphasize the positive impact that institutional investment and financial products tied to Bitcoin have on its price trajectory. The CEO made it clear that these price forecasts are “current,” meaning they could change as new data and market conditions emerge. He further cautioned traders about the risks involved, especially with the leverage present in Bitcoin markets.
“Please note that this doesn’t mean we aren’t getting corrections,” Ju warned. “As I mentioned earlier, the futures perpetual market is overleveraged. Stay long-term bullish, but be cautious with leverage if you’re a trader.”
Ki Young Ju has consistently highlighted the risks associated with overleveraged positions in Bitcoin, especially in the BTC-USDt perpetual market. According to his analysis, the perpetual market is currently overleveraged by about 2.7 times more than at the beginning of 2024. This high leverage can create significant risk, particularly during periods of price corrections.
When leveraged long positions are liquidated, it can create downward pressure on Bitcoin’s price. Ju noted that cascading liquidations—when a series of long positions are forced to close—can lead to sharp corrections in Bitcoin’s price, pulling it down quickly and significantly. Despite this caution, Ju remains confident about Bitcoin’s long-term prospects, affirming that the market is in a bull phase and Bitcoin will continue to rise in the long run.
“We’re in the bull market, Bitcoin will go up,” Ju acknowledged, but he also emphasized that the ongoing price discovery process leaves room for uncertainty, with varying opinions among quantitative analysts regarding the next price movement.
Long-Term Bitcoin Holders and the $90,000 Price Level
In his analysis, Ju also referenced the behavior of long-term Bitcoin holders—those who have held the asset for 155 days or more. CryptoQuant contributor Percival pointed out that some of these long-term holders were starting to take profits at the $90,000 price level, but this action does not represent the entire group of long-term holders. Percival emphasized that many long-term holders are not yet ready to cash out, instead waiting for higher levels before realizing profits.
“Through Realized Price UTXO Bands, we see that long-term holders are not looking at $90K. Bitcoin has to reach higher levels and prices to realize profits of more than 10x,” Percival explained. This observation suggests that long-term holders, who have a lower average purchase price, are holding out for significantly higher returns before selling, which could contribute to upward price pressure in the market.
As Bitcoin continues its journey through price discovery, there are differing opinions about where its price will go next. While Ju is optimistic about Bitcoin’s long-term growth, other analysts have presented more cautious predictions. One of these analysts, BaroVirtual, another CryptoQuant contributor, has forecast a potential price correction for Bitcoin, predicting that the cryptocurrency could fall to around $70,000 before making its way to the $100,000 mark.
However, there is a counterargument suggesting that a deep correction may be avoided if Bitcoin’s price manages to hold above the $85,000 level. If Bitcoin can maintain that level, some analysts believe that the bullish trend will continue without significant pullbacks, pushing the price toward the $100,000 target and beyond.
The market’s volatile nature makes these predictions speculative, with factors like leverage, liquidations, and market sentiment playing critical roles in short-term price movements. Nonetheless, the general consensus remains that Bitcoin is poised for significant growth in the coming months, particularly as institutional adoption and investor confidence increase.
| Analyst/Contributor | Price Prediction | Timeframe | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ki Young Ju | $135,000 (ceiling) | 2024 | Based on capital flows and ETF market impact |
| Percival | Higher levels needed | Long-term | Long-term holders waiting for larger profits |
| BaroVirtual | $70,000 correction | Short-term | Potential dip before reaching $100,000 |
| CryptoQuant Consensus | $100,000 target | Mid to Long-term | Growth expected if price holds above $85,000 |
Institutional Involvement Fuels Bullish Sentiment
The surge in institutional investment in Bitcoin is one of the key drivers of the cryptocurrency’s bullish momentum. As more traditional financial products like Bitcoin ETFs come to market, they provide avenues for institutional investors to gain exposure to Bitcoin without directly purchasing the cryptocurrency. These capital flows contribute to the increasing price predictions, as institutional investors tend to move large amounts of capital, which can push prices to new highs.
Bitcoin’s price movement is not only influenced by retail traders but increasingly by large players in the financial industry. The growing interest from institutions signals the maturing of Bitcoin as a legitimate asset class, adding stability and long-term potential to the market. However, as seen with recent volatility, the market is still susceptible to fluctuations based on external factors like leverage, liquidations, and market sentiment shifts. For Bitcoin to reach the projected price levels, it will need to maintain momentum through both institutional adoption and positive regulatory developments.
Featured image credit: starline via Freepik
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