Global Coin, a leading authority and dealer of numismatics, today released an analysis highlighting significantly reduced mintage figures for the 2025 American Gold Eagle and 2025 American Gold Buffalo. Based on U.S. Mint data through June 2025, combined with historical trends from 2021–2024, our projections indicate that the 2025 editions—particularly the flagship 1-ounce coin—could rank among the lowest-minted in recent years, enhancing their appeal to collectors and investors seeking scarcity-driven value.
Key Findings on 2025 1-Ounce Gold Eagle Mintage
The 1-ounce American Gold Eagle, the most popular denomination in the series, has shown a marked decline in production during the first half of 2025. U.S. Mint sales through June totaled just 96,000 coins, a fraction of prior years’ mid-year figures:
This represents an 81% drop from the average mid-year mintage of approximately 504,000 coins over the previous four years. While sales typically slow in the second half of the year, our analysis accounts for this by applying a historical factor derived from 2nd-half performance in 2021–2024. The average ratio of 2nd-half to 1st-half mintage across these years is 0.609, reflecting seasonal slowdowns and production patterns.
Projecting this forward, the 2025 full-year mintage for the 1-ounce Gold Eagle is estimated at around 154,500 coins. This would be dramatically lower than recent full-year totals:
At just 19% of the four-year average (approximately 799,000 coins), the 2025 1-ounce Gold Eagle could emerge as one of the scarcest modern issues, potentially rivaling lower-mintage years from earlier decades. Minor discrepancies in monthly vs. annual totals are attributable to limited 4-piece set sales by the Mint, but do not materially alter this outlook.
Insights on Fractional Sizes: Broader Scarcity Across the Series
While the 1-ounce coin leads the series, fractional denominations (1/2-ounce, 1/4-ounce, and 1/10-ounce) also exhibit reduced mid-year mintage in 2025, with projections suggesting full-year figures well below historical norms. We applied denomination-specific 2nd-half factors based on 2021–2024 data to account for seasonal trends.
- 1/2-Ounce Gold Eagle: Mid-year sales of 19,000 coins are down 55% from the four-year average of 42,000. Using a 2nd-half factor of 0.521, the projected full-year total of ~29,000 coins would be the lowest since at least 2021.
- 1/4-Ounce Gold Eagle: At 36,000 coins through June (vs. an average of 104,000 historically), this size projects to ~54,000 full-year using a factor of 0.496—less than half the recent average.
- 1/10-Ounce Gold Eagle: The 125,000 mid-year figure is 64% below the average of 346,000, with a projected full-year of ~209,500 (factor: 0.676) still indicating substantial relative scarcity
Historic Rarity on the Horizon: 2025 Gold Buffalo Mintage Plummets 2021–2025
Across the last five years, the 1-oz American Gold Buffalo’s official mintages have set it on a path toward becoming one of the rarest bullion strikes in modern history. Rather than signaling a drop in collector interest, the exceptionally low numbers for 2025 mean these coins will simply be harder to find.
At an estimated 120,000 oz for 2025—just 15% of the recent four-year average—this year’s Buffalo issue will stand out as a true modern rarity.
These projections underscore a series-wide trend of constrained production in 2025, likely influenced by factors such as fluctuating gold prices, mint capacity, and economic conditions. Collectors should note that while Silver Eagles remain robust (over 8 million ounces through the year), the Gold Eagle series stands out for its potential rarity.
Implications for Collectors Seeking Appreciating Assets
“With gold prices hovering near record highs, the prospect of ultra-low mintage for the 2025 Gold Eagles could drive premium appreciation over time,” said Stephen Pfiel, President and Founder at Global Coin. “Historically, scarcer issues like the 2008-W Burnished Gold Eagles or certain low-mintage fractionals have seen strong aftermarket performance. We advise clients to monitor U.S. Mint updates closely and consider early acquisition to capitalize on this scarcity.”
Global Coin offers expert guidance on building scarcity-focused portfolios. For more details or to schedule a consultation, visit shopglobalcoin.com or contact our team at (888) 782-1186.