ASML shares dropped 16% after the Dutch semiconductor equipment maker released its financial results a day early, warning of weaker sales in China. The company’s forecast for 2025, now ranging between €30 billion and €35 billion ($32.7 billion to $38.1 billion), disappointed investors by hitting the lower end of previous estimates. This early disclosure also caused a ripple effect, dragging down chip stocks like Nvidia, Advanced Micro Devices, and Broadcom.
For the September quarter, ASML reported net bookings of €2.6 billion ($2.83 billion), a sharp miss compared to the €5.6 billion consensus. Despite this, the company’s net sales exceeded expectations, coming in at €7.5 billion. CEO Christophe Fouquet pointed to strong momentum in AI but noted that other market segments are recovering more slowly than anticipated. He emphasized that the recovery is “more gradual” than previously expected.
The early release of ASML’s results stemmed from a technical error that caused the company to accidentally post the report on part of its website ahead of schedule. This happened at a time when Wall Street analysts had already become cautious about ASML’s future due to its crucial role in the semiconductor industry and the uncertain economic outlook.
China remains a significant concern for ASML, as U.S. and Dutch export restrictions continue to weigh on its business. The U.S. recently implemented new export controls on advanced chipmaking tools, while the Dutch government moved to take over control of ASML’s machine exports to China. ASML’s CFO, Roger Dassen, indicated that China’s share in the company’s revenue is expected to normalize to around 20% next year, down from the 49% recorded in the June-quarter. This marks a significant adjustment amid ongoing regulatory challenges.
Analysts responded swiftly to the results. Bernstein noted that the disappointing order book and lower 2025 outlook could overshadow the solid Q3 performance. They pointed out that specific customer challenges and a delayed cyclical recovery are likely dragging down 2025 forecasts. Cantor analysts described the outlook as “clearly disappointing” for semiconductor stocks but clarified that it does not signal any shift in AI-related growth.
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