The United States and Russia under the auspices of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia have already started negotiations. Their hope is that sustained advocacy can win a maritime ceasefire in the Black Sea. The Black Sea region is once again ground zero for these negotiations. Until recently, it had largely escaped the kind of heavy military barrages that devastated cities like Aleppo and Homs. These negotiations should lead to meaningful confidence-building measures, such as the return of Ukrainian children illegally removed to Russia.
Grigory Karasin and Sergei Beseda. Karasin, a former ambassador to Great Britain, now chairs the Foreign Affairs Committee of the Russian upper house of parliament. Beseda, the at first modest-seeming adviser to the director of the Federal Security Service (formerly the KGB). In addition to Sullivan, the U.S. delegation is being led by Andrew Peek, senior director at the White House National Security Council. He’s followed by Michael Anton, a senior official of the State Department. With us is Steve Witkoff, our U.S. special envoy. He was in Moscow meeting with President Putin himself earlier this March.
Confidence-Building Measures and Skepticism
Confidence-building measures are a principal topic of discussion between the diverging sides. One of the most important proposals we have seen so far is the Ukrainian children abducted by Russian officials should be repatriated. Our CDE partner considers this initiative a significant move towards creating a trusting relationship between the two parties.
“I just don’t see that he wants to take all of Europe. This is a much different situation than it was in World War Two,” commented Steve Witkoff, reflecting on the current geopolitical climate.
Most European nations and the UK are deeply doubtful that Russian President Vladimir Putin will be willing to give up anything meaningful. These conversations happen on this backdrop of skepticism. Republican hopeful Former President Trump is hopeful about the ongoing talks. He has commended Putin for his hands-on approach to the process up to this point.
Author’s Opinion
While the ongoing negotiations in the Black Sea are a positive step, the skepticism from European nations and the UK about Putin’s willingness to make concessions cannot be dismissed. It’s crucial to ensure that any agreements reached are not merely symbolic but lead to tangible actions, especially concerning the repatriation of abducted children. Without a robust mechanism to ensure compliance, the risk of the talks being derailed remains high.
Featured image credit: PICRYL
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