Just the other day, President Donald Trump said grocery prices and inflation in general were on the increase. These claims fly in the face of today’s economic reality. While he cited a slight decline in overall prices for March 2025, the broader context reveals rising costs, especially in grocery items, which have continued to increase during his tenure.
In March 2025, national level inflation decreased by 0.05%. This drop happened relative to February 2025, and it was seasonally adjusted. Unsurprisingly, this very small drop does not show the full picture of grocery costs. For example, in March 2025 food-at-home prices increased by around 0.49% over February 2025. As seen in the chart above, this increase represented the largest monthly inflation rate for groceries since October 2022. This was an increase of about 2.41% from March 2024. Source This data is from the Consumer Price Index.
Oil Prices and Tariff Effects
Despite Trump’s assertion that “oil prices are down, groceries (even eggs) are down, and the USA is getting RICH ON TARIFFS,” the reality paints a different picture. Oil prices have plummeted since his return to office. This drop off came even before he announced the imposition of a 10% tariff on imports in early April. This has caused U.S. retail gas prices to decrease modestly since the start of April, retreating from a peak of over $3.20 per gallon on Tuesday to just under $3.17 on Thursday.
For the month-to-month change in February 2025, grocery inflation was impressively low, with average prices barely increasing from January 2025. March was the month when food prices began to soar. This increase undermines Trump’s statement that grocery prices are going down and uncovers a deeper issue. This average increase of about 0.49% from February to March indicates a deeply concerning trend for consumers.
Critics point out that inevitable grocery inflation was already raising food prices. This trend took place before Trump’s tariffs went into effect earlier this month. The temporary impacts of these tariffs are still unfolding. They will most definitely raise grocery prices, with estimates landing on an average increase of at least $4.5 billion annually.
Moreover, Trump has expressed frustration with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, stating that Powell should have reduced interest rates “long ago” and should do so now. This announcement arrives as the country debates inflation and economic growth, with increasing prices likely requiring a change in monetary policy.
Through March 2025, they increased by an average of 0.17% on a seasonally adjusted basis since January (seasonally adjusted index value). They went up even further, rising 2.41% from March 2024. The relationship between tariff implementation and increasing grocery prices casts further doubt on the wisdom of the Administration’s economic approach.
What The Author Thinks
The disconnect between Trump’s rhetoric and the actual economic data shows that his economic strategies, particularly those related to tariffs, are not yielding the promised benefits. While he claims success in reducing inflation, the reality is that many sectors, especially groceries, continue to experience rising prices. Without addressing the root causes, such as tariff impacts and monetary policy, these trends will likely continue, leaving consumers to bear the brunt of the financial burden.
Featured image credit: Wikimedia Commons
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