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Polymarket Predicts High Probability of RFK Jr. Exiting Presidential Race Ahead of Speech

ByDayne Lee

Aug 22, 2024

Polymarket Predicts High Probability of RFK Jr. Exiting Presidential Race Ahead of Speech

Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is reportedly poised to exit the 2024 United States presidential race, with an announcement expected during a live broadcast from Phoenix on August 23. According to ABC News sources close to the campaign, Kennedy’s upcoming address will likely confirm his decision to withdraw, marking a significant pivot in the current election cycle.

Speculation about Kennedy’s campaign strategy intensified after his running mate, Nicole Shanahan, hinted during an August 20 interview that their ticket might consider aligning with Republican candidate Donald Trump to form a “unity party.” This possibility arises as Trump plans a rally in Glendale, Arizona, merely hours after Kennedy’s scheduled announcement, underscoring a potentially synchronized political maneuver.

Betting Markets React to the News

The betting and predictions platform Polymarket has seen a dramatic shift in the odds concerning Kennedy’s campaign decisions. As of the latest updates, the likelihood of Kennedy dropping out before the November election has skyrocketed from 51% on August 20 to 98%. Similarly, the probability of his exit before September surged from 8% to 90%. Additionally, the platform has placed a 93% chance on Kennedy endorsing Donald Trump during his Phoenix address.

Since launching his campaign in April 2023 in Boston and later switching his affiliation from Democrat to Independent, Kennedy has been a vocal critic of both President Joe Biden and Donald Trump. Despite his critiques, Trump has labeled Kennedy “the most Radical Left Candidate” in the race. Kennedy’s campaign has been marred by controversies, including bizarre reports and legal challenges regarding his eligibility to appear on the New York ballot due to residency disputes.

Crypto Advocacy and Campaign Promises

Kennedy has positioned digital assets and blockchain technology at the forefront of his campaign, opposing a central bank digital currency and proposing innovative uses of blockchain such as putting the national budget on this technology and backing the US dollar with Bitcoin. His potential exit from the race raises questions about the impact on crypto-focused voters and the broader electoral dynamics between the remaining candidates, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.

As the political landscape adjusts to the possible withdrawal of RFK Jr. from the presidential contest, stakeholders and voters are closely watching how this decision might influence the strategies of the Democratic and Republican frontrunners. The upcoming debate on September 10 between Harris and Trump, along with ongoing campaign developments, will be critical in shaping the path to the November general election.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s impending announcement and potential endorsement of Donald Trump could redefine the contours of the 2024 presidential race, especially for voters invested in cryptocurrency and blockchain advocacy. As the situation unfolds, the political ramifications of his decision will resonate across party lines, potentially altering the competitive landscape of the election.


Featured image credit: Gage Skidmore via Flickr

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Dayne Lee

With a foundation in financial day trading, I transitioned to my current role as an editor, where I prioritize accuracy and reader engagement in our content. I excel in collaborating with writers to ensure top-quality news coverage. This shift from finance to journalism has been both challenging and rewarding, driving my commitment to editorial excellence.

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