During SEMICON 2026 Shanghai, our reporter interviewed Zhang Xiaofei, Chief TMT Analyst at Haitong International. The following are his personal views.
Zhang believes CoPoS—the evolution from CoWoS to panel-level and glass-based packaging—will kick off a new industry cycle over the next three years, with opportunities following a “equipment first, materials second, integration payoff” trajectory.
He notes that 2026–2028 is a critical window for large-chip panel-level packaging to move from validation to mass production, evolving through “pilot validation → capacity ramp-up → cost inflection.” TSMC’s CoPoS pilot line is expected in 2026, with mass production by 2028. Amid surging AI/HPC demand and CoWoS shortages, panel-level packaging offers a path to alleviate capacity bottlenecks.
From an industry chain perspective, equipment is the first theme. The shift from wafer to panel and from silicon to glass interposer creates new equipment needs. Chinese domestic players are positioned for breakthroughs in laser, electroplating, and inspection. Materials will scale as processes mature, including dry-film photoresist, ultra-thin copper foil, electroplating solution, and glass substrates. Packaging integration value is rising. While TSMC leads in technology and capacity, domestic Chinese players such as JCET, Tongfu Microelectronics, and Huatian Technology stand to benefit from domestic substitution and capacity expansion.
Zhang expects the fastest equipment order growth in 2026–2027, materials entering sustained volume growth after yields stabilize, and packaging hitting its performance peak after mass production scales up in 2028. Risks include TGV yield ramp-up, warpage control, RDL stability, competition, AI demand fluctuations, and customer adoption uncertainty in China.
Overall, 2026–2028 is a key three-year period for CoPoS to reach mass production, with Chinese domestic companies expected to achieve a full-chain upgrade across equipment, materials, and packaging.
Our reporter has learned that multiple semiconductor, AI, and hard-tech companies are actively preparing for Hong Kong listings, with market attention on red-chip feasibility and regulatory attitudes. Recent rumors have sparked debate. Below is a summary of regulatory developments regarding red-chip listings in Hong Kong.
Regulatory Shift Toward Quality Over Quantity Benefits Tech Companies’ Hong Kong Financing
Recent Bloomberg reports claiming “China is restricting red-chip companies from listing in Hong Kong and advising some to dismantle their structures” have sparked market debate, even leading to misinterpretations that the “red-chip model has been completely halted.” However, based on regulatory statements, policy documents, and market cases, such rumors are untrue.
For technology companies with genuine overseas operations, cross-border listing channels remain open. Chinese authorities’ supportive stance toward tech companies’ overseas listings has never wavered.
Not a Denial of the Red-Chip Model; Compliance Review Is the Core Regulatory Focus
The Hong Kong Stock Exchange has not publicly amended its Listing Rules nor issued any formal document banning red-chip companies from listing in Hong Kong.
According to an exclusive report by Sina Securities on March 17, Hong Kong investment bankers explicitly stated that recent HKEX IPO policy adjustments do not involve a “ban on red-chip structures,” and market rumors are unreliable.
As revealed by Hong Kong securities sponsors, companies currently required to dismantle their red-chip structures share common characteristics: the ultimate controller holds Chinese nationality, the structure was reorganized from a domestic to a red-chip framework, most of the main business is conducted within China, and the industry is not subject to foreign investment restrictions.
Such structural adjustments stem from a mismatch between business attributes and the red-chip model, not from a blanket regulatory restriction.
Meanwhile, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has issued supplementary material requests to eight companies. Among them, Haipaike has been asked to explain the compliance of its red-chip structure establishment and dismantling, data security, payment business rectification, and historical equity holdings on behalf of others. These are routine reviews of the necessity and compliance of red-chip structures, not special restrictions.
Continued Policy Easing and Strong Support for Tech Companies’ Overseas Listings
From a policy perspective, Chinese authorities have continuously strengthened support for tech companies’ overseas listings, with ongoing relaxation of cross-border financing rules.
In December 2025, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) jointly issued a notice simplifying fund management procedures for overseas listings, easing registration timelines for issuance, listing, additional issuances, and share reductions, and allowing eligible companies to retain raised funds overseas for business expansion. This policy takes effect in April 2026.
The CSRC’s 2023 rules for pilot innovative enterprises make clear that tech red-chip companies in AI, integrated circuits, and biomedicine aligned with national strategy may issue depositary receipts domestically, without restrictions on the red-chip structure itself. The 2026 Two Sessions (China’s annual parliamentary meetings) further established a “green channel” for hard-tech companies. The HKEX’s Chapter 18C for specialist technology companies has also opened the door for unprofitable tech companies to go public overseas, and red-chip structures are eligible.
Orderly Listings for Companies with Genuine Overseas Operations; Red-Chip Remains a Viable Path
The cross-border listing channel for the red-chip model has not been closed. Tech red-chip companies with genuine overseas operations are steadily advancing their Hong Kong listing plans.
In January 2026, global AI company MiniMax successfully listed on the HKEX using a red-chip structure, with approximately 70% of its revenue from overseas. In February 2026, global spatial intelligence unicorn Qunke Technology (ManyCore) received CSRC filing approval for its Hong Kong IPO, with products and services covering over 200 countries and regions.
Therefore, the current regulatory review of red-chip structures is a normal “quality-over-quantity” move in the capital market, aimed at regulating the establishment and operation of red-chip structures and guiding companies to choose structures that match their business attributes—not shutting the door on cross-border financing for tech companies.
For technology companies with core technologies and genuine overseas operations, the red-chip model remains an effective path to a Hong Kong listing.