Simulation models potential overlap between AI systems and human labor
A new MIT–Oak Ridge National Laboratory study suggests that agentic AI systems could theoretically perform work equivalent to 11.7% of the U.S. labor market. The findings come from Project Iceberg, a simulation effort that created a digital twin of the national workforce to assess AI’s potential capabilities at scale. CNBC reported that the estimated wage impact could reach $1.2 trillion across finance, healthcare, and professional services.
Project Iceberg uses supercomputing to map jobs and skills
Researchers built the Iceberg Index by evaluating 151 million workers, analyzing their skills, tasks, and geographic distribution. The project mapped more than 32,000 professional skills across 923 occupations in 3,000 counties. ORNL’s supercomputing infrastructure supported simulations comparing human roles with agentic AI systems capable of completing similar tasks.
The team said the tool is not designed to predict precise outcomes but can help governments and policymakers understand potential areas of disruption. State authorities contributed labor data to test how different regions might be affected, and MIT researchers outlined reskilling requirements that may emerge as AI adoption grows.
County-level modeling includes all 50 states
The Iceberg Index can simulate job replacement patterns at the county level, down to individual census blocks. The model covers all 50 U.S. states rather than focusing solely on large technology hubs. North Carolina state Senator DeAndrea Salvador worked with MIT on the project and said the simulation can test workforce planning scenarios before real-world investments are made.
Policy context and uncertainties around AI-driven job change
While research groups explore how AI might affect employment, outcomes remain uncertain. Some organizations have rehired workers after initial AI deployment, suggesting uneven results across industries. Meanwhile, a bipartisan bill recently introduced in Congress would require companies to disclose which roles are being replaced by AI systems.
Featured image credits: julien Tromeur via Unsplash
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