A single gambler made nearly $500,000 by betting on the removal of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro from power shortly before the US government publicly announced his capture, prompting scrutiny over whether inside information may have been used.
The wager was placed on Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction platform, where users were betting on whether Maduro would be out of power by the end of January. Betting activity intensified in the hours before US President Donald Trump announced on Saturday that Maduro had been seized and was in US custody.
One anonymous account, which joined Polymarket in December and placed four wagers focused exclusively on Venezuela, earned more than $436,000 from a $32,537 bet. The account is identified only by a blockchain address consisting of letters and numbers, and the individual behind it has not been identified.
Polymarket data shows that traders initially viewed Maduro’s removal as unlikely. On the afternoon of Friday, 2 January, the odds stood at 6.5%. By shortly before midnight, the probability had risen to 11%, before surging further in the early hours of 3 January. The sharp movement occurred shortly before Trump posted on Truth Social confirming Maduro’s capture.
Polymarket did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
Dennis Kelleher, chief executive of the financial reform advocacy group Better Markets, told CBS News that the trade showed characteristics commonly associated with the use of inside information. He said the timing and concentration of the wagers raised red flags.
Several other Polymarket users also made significant profits, earning tens of thousands of dollars from similar bets tied to Maduro’s capture.
The activity has begun to draw attention from US lawmakers. Representative Ritchie Torres, a Democrat from New York, introduced legislation on Monday aimed at banning government employees from trading on prediction markets when they possess material nonpublic information related to the subject of a wager.
Prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi have grown rapidly in the United States, allowing users to place bets on outcomes ranging from sports to geopolitical events. The sector drew hundreds of millions of dollars in wagers during the 2024 US presidential election cycle.
While insider trading is illegal in traditional stock markets, prediction markets operate under a looser regulatory framework. The industry faced closer scrutiny under the Biden administration but has encountered a more receptive stance during Trump’s presidency.
Donald Trump Jr., the president’s son, holds advisory roles at both Kalshi and Polymarket.
A spokesperson for Kalshi said the company explicitly prohibits insider trading, including participation by government employees in markets connected to government actions. No equivalent public statement was immediately available from Polymarket regarding the specific wagers tied to Maduro’s capture.
Featured image credits: Pexels
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